MINN_LAB Unveils 'Orbacles' at Northern Spark

Jun 10 2017 - 9:00pm to Jul 31 2017 - 10:45am
The Commons Public Green in Minneapolis - 425 Portland Ave S, Minneapolis, MN 55488

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ON DISPLAY IN THE COMMONS FROM JUNE 10 TO JULY 31

More information below and at 2017.NORTHERNSPARK.ORG.

ORBACLES: MAKING CLIMATE DATA REAL

Orbacles is a physical manifestation of data scientists use to understand climate change. Each of the 147 bird species in the Climate Change Bird Atlas [1,2] is represented as a module – an individual birdhouse, feeder, or bath – with a hood that is sized to be proportional to the typical length and wingspan of the species [3]. The placement is consistent, so you will find one module for each species at a consistent location within each Orbacle

THE THREE ORBACLES

Scientists often compare multiple alternatives, since the future depends in part on the choices we make today. Orbacle A shows the current situation. Orbacle B shows a low emissions scenario that reflects “high level of conservation and reduction of CO2 emissions” [2]. Orbacle C shows a high emissions scenario, assuming that “the current [fossil fuel] emissions trends continue for the next several decades” [2]. To read the data and compare the different scenarios, look for changes in color across all three Orbacles.

COLOR INDICATES CHANGE IN PREVALENCE

White represents a baseline – the current situation. If everything stayed the same in the future, then the two future Orbacles would be white, just like the current one. If the color turns orange, this means the species is expected to become less prevalent in Minnesota. (Many species decrease in prevalence in the future, some will leave Minnesota entirely.) If the color turns blue, this means the species becomes more prevalent in the future. (Many non-native species are expected to come to Minnesota for the first time.)

The Prevalence Score that drives these color changes is a number between 0 and 100. It is derived from what scientists call an area-weighted bird incidence value [2], here calculated for the area of the state of Minnesota. It can be considered to be proportional to the actual population of each species, but it might be more accurately described as how likely you would be to come across this species on a (really long) walk throughout our state. In fact, the scientific models are built upon data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, a roadside survey conducted annually since 1966 that involves stopping periodically along predefined routes to identify the species present at each location [4].

EXPLORE FOR YOURSELF

The interactive data graphic below uses the same data and spatial arrangement as the set of three Orbacles sculptures installed in Minneapolis. Hover your mouse over each module to see how the prevelance of the species in Minnesota is expected to change over time. Clicking on a module brings up a link to additional information about the species.